基于个体的东海鲐鱼补充量年际变动模拟研究

Simulation study of individual-based model on interannual fluctuation of Chub mackerel's(Scomber japonicus) recruitment in the East China Sea

东海鲐鱼(Scomber japonicus)是我国近海重要经济鱼种,年际资源量波动较大,物理环境对其资源量的丰歉影响很大。本文运用基于个体的东海鲐鱼生长初期生态模型,模拟1978-2013年东海鲐鱼资源补充量。模拟发现,物理环境的变化确实能导致东海鲐鱼资源补充量的年际差异,并且在90年代后出现了较大的波动,资源补充量最多的2002年(1.8×10~9尾)与最少的1996年(6.5×10~8尾)相差1.15×10~9尾。产卵后的15~30d,即4月份鱼卵仔鱼所处的海洋物理环境对东海鲐鱼最终的资源补充量起到重要作用,4月底鱼卵仔鱼的存活量基本上决定了东海鲐鱼最终的资源补充量的多寡。4月份的水温是影响鲐鱼资源补充量的物理因素之一,4月份水温高有利于提高鲐鱼的资源补充量,相反,水温偏低不利于鲐鱼的资源补充量。4月份的台湾暖流的流速也是影响鲐鱼资源补充量的另外一个物理因素,4月份台湾暖流的势力强对东海鲐鱼最终资源补充量是有利的,相反,流速小对补充量较不利。4月份台湾暖流的水温、流速决定最终东海鲐鱼资源补充量。

Chub mackerel （Scomber japonicus） is an important economic fish species in China^s coastal waters and its internannual resources has a great fluctuation, which is influenced by physical environment. In the paper, an in- dividual-based model of early life-history stages was used to simulate the mount of Chub mackerel＇s recruitment in the East China Sea during 1978--2013. The result showed that the changes in the physical environment did lead to an interannual fluctuation of Chub mackerel＇s recruitment in the East China Sea and there was a large fluctuation in late 90s, with the largest amount of recruitment resources in 2002 （1.8 ×10^9 ind） and the least one in 1996 （6.5× 10^8 ind）, the amount of difference recruitment between 2002 and 1996 is 1.15 × 10^9 ind. 15-- 30 days after spaw- ning, that was the ocean physical environment in April played an important role in recruitment of Chub mackerel in the East China Sea and the survival amount of eggs and larvae in late April basically determined the amount of final Chub mackerel＇s recruitment. The water temperature was one important physical factors affecting recruitment of Chub mackerel. The higher water temperature was beneficial to improve recruitment of Chub mackerel, On the contrary, the lower one was not conducive to recruitment of the Chub mackerel. Taiwan Warm Current （TWC） was another important physical factor affecting the recruitment of Chub mackerel. The bigger velocity of TWC in April was beneficial to the recruitment. On the contrary, the smaller one was unfavorable to the recruitment. So the water temperature and velocity of TWC in April did determine the final amount of Chub mackerel＇s recruit- ment in the East China Sea.