新电改背景下基于多属性决策的电力客户评估和选择研究

Multi-Attribute Decision Making Model for Customer Evaluation and Selection in Electricity Market

在售电侧放开背景下和售电市场的巨大利润的驱动下,售电主体之间竞争异常激烈,如何科学地指导售电主体选择优质客户、降低运营风险,从而推动售电市场健康、有序发展是亟待解决的问题。为此,提出一种基于多属性决策的电力客户评估模型,首先通过分析电力客户特性和售电主体利益需求构建合理的电力客户评估指标体系;然后根据数据类型特点提出一种层次分析法与改进熵权法相结合的组合赋权方法,综合考虑了专家经验和指标数据的客观信息,解决了不同类型数据信息融合的问题;此外,为了克服逼近理想解排序法存在的逆序和欧式距离计算相对贴近度不合理的缺陷,提出一种包含绝对理想解和＂垂面距离＂的电力客户排序策略,以提高该模型排序的准确性。最后基于产品生命周期理论模拟售电市场的导入、发展和成熟3个阶段,并通过电力客户实际数据进行算例分析,根据算例结果为售电主体在售电市场发展的不同阶段提供电力客户选择建议,验证了评估模型的有效性。

Driven by huge profits of electricity market, competition between electricity retailers becomes increasingly intense. There is a crucial need for a method for prioritizing customers to increase competitiveness of electricity retailers and thereby ensure a healthy and orderly electricity market. This paper presents a customer evaluation model based on multi-attribute decision method. The model proceeds as follows. Firstly, an evaluation index system for prioritizing power customers is developed based on customer characteristics and electricity retailer interests. Secondly, index weights are obtained with analytic hierarchy process along with improved entropy weight method, to reflect opinions of experts and objective quality of different types of data and enable a combined utilization of different types of data. Then, to avoid shortage of technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution, an improved sorting strategy using absolute ideal solution and vertical projection distance is proposed. Finally, a case study is conducted for different development stages of electricity market. Results show distinct customer prioritizing strategies at different market development stages, and verify effectiveness of the proposed evaluation model.