基于耗散结构的产业结构演化系统熵变研究

Entropy Change of Industrial Structure Evolution System Based on Dissipative Structure

基于耗散结构理论,建立运行熵和关联熵测度模型,对中国2010—2015年产业结构演化系统运行熵和关联熵进行实证分析,进而评价系统及其各子系统的运行效率和有序度。实证结果表明:2010—2015年,产业结构演化系统及其子系统运行效率逐渐提高,由此而产生的结构效益逐渐增加。产业结构演化系统及其子系统有序度总体趋势逐渐增加,系统趋于稳定。结合中国经济增速持续下滑的现状以及地区产业发展中的突出问题,得出产业结构演化系统正在以微涨落衰减的趋势向产业结构演化系统原有结构靠近,产业政策的实施效果逐步被结构惰性抵消,并针对产业结构演化当前状况基于不同地区发展情况以及区域特征提出相应建议。

Based on the dissipative structure theory, the models of running entropy and correlation entropy are established to analyze the running entropy and the correlation entropy of industrial structure evolution system in China from 2010 to 2015, and then to evaluate the efficiency and the order of the system and its subsystems. The empirical results show that during the period of 2010--2015, China＇s in- dustrial structure evolution system and its subsystems operating efficiency gradually increased, resulting in structural benefits gradually increased. The overall trend of the system order gradually increased, the system tending to be stable. The paper concludes that China＇s industrial structure evolution system is approaching to the original structure of the industrial structure evolution system with the trend of micro-fluctuation decay, and the implementation effect of industrial policies is offset by the structure inertia. And it puts forward the cor- responding suggestions on the current situation of industrial structure evolution on the basis of the development of different regions and regional characteristics.