交通基础设施对雾霾污染的影响效应——基于BMA方法的检验

The Effects of Traffic Infrastructure on Haze Pollution——A Test Based on BMA Method

本文基于卫星监测的PM2.5浓度数据,采用贝叶斯模型平均方法,从新方法、新视角和新维度衡量了交通基础设施对雾霾污染的影响效应。实证结果显示,交通基础设施存量的增长能够有效降低雾霾污染程度,即便是在考虑了诸多其他因素时,这种影响效应也能被显著地识别出来。在区分不同交通模式后,发现公路运输是雾霾污染的重要来源,但以铁路、轨道交通等为代表的公共交通基础设施则有效缓解了雾霾现象,这一结论在各地区间具有较高的一致性。

This paper used the Bayesian Model Averaging method to measure the effects of traffic infrastructure on haze pollution on the basis of the data of PM2. 5 that monitored by the satellite. The empirical results showed that the transportation infrastructure could effec- tively reduce the haze pollution phenomenon on the national level, and this effect could also be significant recognized by taking other factors into account. In addition, when considering different traffic patterns, the highway had a great interpretation on haze pollution, and the public traffic infrastructure effectively reduced the haze pollution. This conclusion is unanimous in different regions.