北京市小宗蔬菜价格走势及波动周期分析

Analysis on the Price Trend and Fluctuation Cycle of Careen Vegetables in Beijing

近年来,小宗蔬菜价格波动异常频繁,严重影响生产者和消费者利益。该研究选取北京新发地2012年1月至2016年12月生姜、大蒜和大葱平均批发价格的月度数据作为研究对象,分析葱姜蒜价格走势,并运用HP滤波分解模型对葱姜蒜价格进行周期分解,以此剖析其价格波动存在的内在规律。结果表明:葱姜蒜价格相对于水果市场、生猪市场等波动幅度较大,无明显规律性;波动周期较短,市场稳定性差;生姜价格周期存在缩短的趋势,大蒜、大葱价格周期存在扩张的趋势。

In recent years,the prices of careen vegetable had been fluctuated very frequently which had seriously affected the interests of producers and consumers.In this study,the monthly data of average wholesale price of ginger,garlic and green onion from January 2012 to December 2016 were selected as the research object.The price trend of ginger garlic was analyzed and the price of green onion,ginger,garlic was analyzed by HP filter decomposition model decomposition,as such analyzes the inherent law of price fluctuation.The results showed that the price of shallot,ginger and garlic was fluctuated largely than that of fruit market and pig market with no obvious regularity,a short volatility period and poor market stability.The price cycle of ginger was shortened,and the price cycle of garlic and green onion was expanding.