基于脆性熵的群体踩踏事件演变研究

The Study of Group Stampedes Based on Brittle Entropy

大规模群体踩踏事件的成因和演化过程成为公共危机管理的研究热点之一。文章利用脆性熵来研究系统崩溃成因及演化。根据人流去向和波动情况的比率来表征事件的同一概率、波动概率和对立概率,并根据其值来计算相应的脆性同一熵、脆性波动熵、脆性对立熵,同时利用燕尾突变级数法求出各种熵在脆性联系熵中的权重用以计算系统的脆性联系熵,表明脆性基元内子系统的熵值在外界干扰过程中不断增加,达到临界熵值而崩溃,致使发生大规模群体踩踏事件。通过利用系统脆性熵对上海外滩踩踏事件进行实例分析,可以较清晰地揭示踩踏事件的发生、演化,并能根据脆性熵值进行预防和管理危机事件。

The cause and evolution of mass stampede events have become one of the hot spots in public crisis management. In this paper,the brittle entropy is used to study the causes and evolution of system collapse. According to the ratio of the flow and the fluctuation of the flow,the same probability,the fluctuation probability and the opposition probability of the event are calculated,and based on the above results corresponding brittleness of the same entropy,brittle volatility entropy,brittle opposite entropy,at the same time,the weight of the entropy in the brittle contact entropy is obtained by using the swallowtail mutation series method to calculate the brittleness entropy of the system,which shows that the entropy of subsystems in brittle primitives is increasing in the process of external disturbance,reaching the critical entropy and collapsing,resulting in large-scale group trampling events.An example analysis of Shanghai Bund stampede event by using system brittle entropy,which can clearly reveal the occurrence and evolution of stampede events,shows that brittle entropy can be used to prevent and manage the crisis.