石河子地区近50a气温和降水量变化特征分析

Analysis on Variation of Temperature and Precipitation of ShiheziRegion in Recent 50 Years

运用石河子地区4 个地面气象站1964-2013 年的气温和降水资料,采用线性趋势分析法、R/S 分析法和Mann-Kendall 突变检验法探讨了气温和降水的变化趋势、突变特征及持续性.结果表明：（1）研究区多年平均气温为7.2 ,近50 a年平均气温和各季节平均气温均呈上升趋势,其中年平均最高气温增温较缓慢,年平均最低气温增温显著.（2）近50 a 垦区年降水量呈波动上升趋势,增加速率为11.6 mm/10 a,各季降水量增加趋势为夏季（4.3 mm/10 a）跃冬季（3.4mm/10 a）跃秋季（2.8 mm/10 a）春季（1.1 mm/10 a）.（3）石河子地区气温和降水均呈现出上升趋势,气温的突变发生在1987 年,降水的突变发生在1985 年,突变时间非常相近,趋势也基本-致,只是剧烈程度不同.

Based on the meteorological data of four stations in Shihezi region from 1964 to 2013,the variation of temperatureand precipitation were analyzed with the methods of linear trend analysis,R/S method and Mann-Kendall test. The main resultsshowed that： （1）The annual average temperature of Shihezi region was 7.2 ℃. In the past 50 years,both the annual and seasonalaverage temperature showed an increasing tendency. Besides,the annual mean minimum temperature presented a larger incrementthan that of the annual mean maximum temperature. （2）The increasing rate of annual and seasonal （spring,summer,autumn andwinter）precipitation were 11.6 mm/10a,1.1 mm/10a,4.3 mm/10a,2.8 mm/10a and 3.4 mm/10a,respectively. （3）The resultsof Mann-Kendall test and R/S analysis showed that the variation trend of temperature was similar to that of precipitation,and thejump point of annual temperature and precipitation of Shihezi region were 1987 and 1985,respectivdy.