内需压力、经济规模与中国出口的可持续增长

Domestic Demand Pressure,Scale of Economy and Sustainable Growth of China's Export

扩内需与促出口可以兼得吗?在不同产业内部企业生产率服从Pareto分布的假设下,纳入可变价格加成以及潜在企业针对不同产业的进入选择,基于2003-2014年HS产品分类六位码和中国工业产业四位码层次的数据,系统分析了内外需、经济规模和竞争力在我国出口增长中的作用及影响机制。结果表明:"内需压力假说"在我国并不成立,而且,我国出口的国内需求弹性远大于外需弹性;内需压力增加虽然部分占用了以往用于出口的生产要素,但这一途径尚不足以明显抑制出口,内需压力对出口的促进作用,本质上是通过带动外需实现的;而经济规模的扩张,始终不利于出口。因此,未来在坚持提升我国出口产品竞争力的同时,更应重视内需、市场结构调整等对促出口的重要作用。

Is it possible to enlarge domestic demand and promote export at the same time? Under the assumption of Pareto distribution in different industries,this paper includes the variable price markup and the entry of potential enterprises for different industries and systematically analyzes the role of internal and external demand,economic scale and competitiveness in China's export growth and its influencing mechanism based on 6-digit HS and 4-digit industry data from 2003 to 2014. The results show that the hypothesis of domestic demand pressure is not supported in China and the domestic demand elasticity of China 's export is much greater than the elasticity of foreign demand. The increase of domestic demand pressure is not yet sufficient to significantly curb exports although it partly occupies the previous production elements used for exports,and the effect of domestic demand pressure on export is essentially realized through driving foreign demand. And the expansion of economic scale is not conducive to export. Therefore,while adhering to the promotion of the competitiveness of our export products in the future,we should pay more attention to the important role of domestic demand and market structure adjustment in promoting export.