价格周期对稀有金属国际定价权影响的实证分析:以钨为例

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Price Cycle on the International Pricing Power of Rare Metals:Taking Tungsten as an Example

稀有金属因其特殊的功能和用途,成为战略性新兴产业的关键原材料。我国钨、稀土等稀有金属虽然储量丰富,但长期以来却没能掌握这些优势金属矿产品的国际定价权。价格周期作为影响国际定价权的主要因素之一,其波动带来的不确定性通过产业链传导至下游企业。文章选取稀有金属的典型品种——钨,对其进行时间序列分解,并采用H-P滤波法分别获得周期成分。结果发现,近年来中国钨的APT价格与欧洲自由市场APT价格的联动性有所增强。在此基础上,通过VAR的实证分析得出了"中国钨精矿的出口价格走势会影响到欧洲自由市场的价格走势"的结论。这表明,在钨产品的国际贸易中,中国已经逐步拥有了一定的定价权。为进一步提升我国优势稀有金属的国际定价权,应建立完善商品价格监测预警机制,构建稀有金属资源信息共享平台,从而有效平抑价格周期性波动的冲击。同时,加大产业链上游的资源保护和下游高端应用的投入力度,加快将资源优势转换为市场势力和商品定价优势。

Rare metals have become the key raw materials for strategic emerging industries due to their special functions and uses.Although rare metals such as tungsten and rare earth are abundant in China,China has not been able to master the international pricing power of these advantageous metal minerals for a long time.The price cycle is one of the main factors that influence the international pricing power,and the uncertainty brought by its fluctuation is transmitted to the downstream enterprises through the industrial chain.In this paper,tungsten,a typical rare metal,is decomposed according to time series,and periodic components are obtained by H-P filtering method.It is found that the linkage between China's tungsten APT price and the APT price of the European free market has increased in recent years.On this basis,through the empirical analysis of VAR,it is concluded that the export price trend of China's tungsten concentrate will affect the price trend of the European free market.This shows that in the international trade of tungsten products,China has gradually possessed a certain pricing power.To this end,it still calls for China to improve the price monitoring and warning mechanisms as well as establishing the information sharing platform of rare metals so as to stabilize the cyclical fluctuations of price effect.At the same time,efforts should be made to increase the input of resources in the upstream of the industrial chain and to invest in the downstream high-end applications,so as to speed up the transformation from resource advantages to market forces and commodity pricing advantages.