人民币汇率双锚机制及效应研究

Research on the Mechanism and Effect of Double Anchor of RMB Exchange Rate

新汇改后,人民币汇率形成机制处在从"美元锚"向"篮子货币锚"的转换过程中。通过阐述货币锚和货币锚转换原理,分析汇率双锚机制内在机理,对"篮子货币+收盘价"的运行机制、相互协调以及双锚特征加以剖析,认为双锚汇率机制能够渐进释放人民币贬值压力,减缓美元升值带来的贬值冲击并且需要依靠资本管制实现外汇市场的自动均衡。提出完善人民币汇率形成机制相应对策建议。

After the new exchange reform,the RMB exchange rate mechanism is in the transition from "dollar anchor" to "basket currency anchor".By elaborating currency anchor and currency anchor conversion principle,this paper analyzes the internal mechanism of exchange rate's double anchor mechanism,analyzes the operation mechanism,coordination and double anchor characteristics of "basket currency+closing price",and points out that the double anchor exchange rate mechanism can gradually release the pressure of RMB devaluation,mitigating the devaluation impact of the dollar's appreciation and the need to rely on capital controls to achieve an automatic equilibrium in the foreign exchange market.Finally,this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.