他们在担心什么？--脆弱性视角下农村老年人的养老风险与养老期望探究

What are They Worrying About?——Life Risks and Expectations of the Elderly in Chinese Rural Area from Vulnerable Perspective

本文基于2016年全国12个省1395位农村老年人调查数据,利用Ordinal Logistics回归模型,实证分析农村老年人的养老风险与养老期望。研究结果表明,农村老年人的养老风险并不像学者们所忧虑的那样严重,经济保障风险是农村老年人的主要养老风险。农村老年人的养老风险,受家庭内外部保障因素的显著影响,并呈现明显的个体差异。医疗保险补偿水平越高、邻里互助越好以及东部地区的农村老年人,面临的养老风险越小;家庭存款越多、家庭规模越大和代际关系越好的农村老年人,面临的养老风险越低;年龄越大、教育年限越长、健康状况越好和已婚的农村老年人,面临的养老风险越低。无论是东部地区还是中、西部地区,农村老年人主要养老期望是家庭支持,对依靠社会解决他们养老风险的期望很低。因此,有效治理当前农村老年人的养老风险,把重点放在家庭保障能力建设方面,更符合老年人期望,效果将会更好。

This article,based on 1395 survey data coming from 12 provinces of Chinese rural area,analyzes Life risks and expectations of the elderly in Chinese rural area by using Ordinal Logistics regression model. The results show that life risks of the elderly in Chinese rural area are not as serious as the researchers worried about. The chief life risk of the elderly in Chinese rural area is economic risk. Outside and inside family's protection factors have significant influence on life risk of the elderly in Chinese rural area. The life risks or the elderly are different from each other. The elderly with higher level of medical insurance compensation,better neighborhood assistance and living in the east area of China,face lower life risks. The elderly with more deposit,bigger family size and better generational relationship face lower life risks. The elderly of older age,longer education,better of health status and married face lower life risks. Whether in east or middle and west of China,the chief expectations of the elderly is their family's supports. They have very low expectations on social welfare to avoid their life risks. So,if we pay more attention to improve the family protection level we should get the better protective effect.