市场参与者预期与商品住宅价格的动态关系研究——基于时间维和空间维的比较分析

The Dynamic Relationship between Market Participants' Expectations and Commercial Housing Prices:A Comparative Analysis Based on Temporal Dimension and Spatial Dimension

能否科学揭示预期与房价的关系是行业健康、调控有效、决策正确的关键。建立实证计量模型后,联合运用面板数据模型、面板聚类法等分别从时间、空间变化角度,对2001—2015年中国30个省(市、自治区)市场参与者预期与商品住宅价格的内在关系进行数量刻画与纵横比较,主要从时间维度、空间维度剖析了预期与房价内在联系的演化过程与地区分异规律,为房价波动、地区间房价差异、调控低效等现象给出了新的解释。结果表明:从时间维看,预期与房价的关系在4个阶段中是动态变化的,随着时间的推移,预期对房价的刺激作用不断加强;房价在4个阶段的主要影响因素是不同的。从空间维看,预期对1~4类地区的正向影响力度存在差异,大体上表现出随房价水平的下降反而加强的趋势;宏观政策对4类地区的调控效果存在差异。

Whether the relationship between expectations and housing prices can be scientifically revealed is the key to the healthy development of the industry, effective regulation and correct decisionmaking. On the basis of building the empirical model,the paper makes quantitative and comparative analyses on the relationship between market participants 'expectations and housing prices of 30 provinces in China,which focuses on the temporal dimension and spatial dimension. The term of sample is from 2001 to2015,and the methods include panel data model,panel clustering analysis and so on. The results show that: from the temporal dimension, the relationship between expectations and prices is dynamic; The expectations ' role in housing prices has been strengthening as time goes on; The main influential factors on housing prices in 4 stages are different. From the spatial dimension,the impacts of expectations on all regions are obviously different and it generally shows a rising trend with the decline in housing price s; There are differences in the effectiveness of macrocontrol policies in four regions. From the temporal dimension and the spatial dimension, the paper analyzes the evolutionary process and regional differentiation rules of the intrinsic link between expectations and housing prices and provides new explanations for the fluctuations of housing prices,the differences of housing prices between regions and regulation inefficiency.