房地产价格波动:投资效应、财富效应与通货膨胀效应

Macroeconomic Effect of China 's House Price Fluctuation: Investment Effect,Wealth Effect and Inflation Effect

为了探究我国房价波动的宏观经济效应,基于2005年7月至2016年11月70个大中城市的月度数据,从投资效应、财富效应和通货膨胀效应3个维度构建ARDL模型,以研究我国房价波动对经济增长、国民消费和物价水平的影响。结果发现,短期来看,房价会通过财富效应侵蚀当期消费;经市场充分消化后,长期来看,房价会带来消费回升;房价波动与社会总投资规模之间没有长期稳定的关系。鉴于此,从强实抑虚、规范房地产业发展、促进经济持续增长等角度提出相关建议。

In order to study the macroeconomic effect of China ' s house price fluctuation from three dimensions of investment effect, wealth effect and inflation effect, this paper constructs ARDL model based on the monthly data of 70 large and medium cities from July 2005 to November 2016. As a result,the investment effect of house price fluctuation is not significant. Meanwhile, short-term house price fluctuation may be eroded through the wealth of the current consumption,and the long-term house price may bring about the same degree of consumption rebound. It is found that there is no long-term stable relationship between house price and general social investment scale. In view of the close relationship between house price fluctuation and macroeconomic operation,the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions.