贸易崩溃、出口多样化与企业绩效——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

Trade Collapse,Export Diversification and Firm Performance——Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies

通过构建一个多产品多市场的理论模型,本文重点研究出口多样化对企业盈利和生产率的影响,并借助2009年全球贸易崩溃这一自然实验对理论模型的推论进行实证检验。结果显示,在贸易崩溃期间,进口国需求萎缩会降低中国上市出口公司的盈利和生产率,而出口目的国和出口产品种类较多的企业的盈利和生产率降幅较小。这意味着,提升企业的出口多样化水平,有利于降低负向需求冲击对出口企业绩效的不利影响。

This paper developed a multi-products and multi-markets model to study the effects of export diversification on profits and productivity,and used the natual experiment of the 2009 global trade collapse to test the propositions of the theoretical model. The results showed that the change in exports would lead to the change in profitable ability and productivity in the same direction,while their positive relationship was weaker on higher export diversification levels. Therefore,when firms are faced with positive demand shocks,their profitability and productivity increase less,while when negative demand shocks such as the global trade collapse come,their profitability and productivity decrease less.