地方政府债务与房价的作用机制分析

An Analysis and Empirical Test of the Mechanism Between Local Government Debts and Housing Price

分析地方政府债务与房价正向相关的理论机制,表明房地产市场的繁荣引致地价上涨,地方政府更容易通过土地抵押举债,导致债务规模的升高;而地方政府将债务资金用于工业化、城镇化建设,促进了房地产市场的繁荣,推高了房价。而从制度环境和政治环境来看,地方政府财权与事权不匹配以及地方官员的政绩需求导致财政负债,引发了大规模举债。进一步地运用中国30个省、自治区、直辖市的2010—2015年的相关面板数据进行实证检验,发现地方政府债务和房价存在相互的正向影响。据此,建议中央政府治理债务、调控房价需要考虑到地方政府的财权、事权,而地方政府应挖掘新的财政增收方式。

This paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism between local government debts and housing price.Results show that the housing boom leads to land price rise,which facilitates local governments to borrow money through land mortgage,leading to the increase of debt scale.When local governments use debt funds for industrialization and urbanization,it leads to property market boost and push up housing prices.In terms of social system environment and political environment,the mismatching between the local government's fiscal power and administrative power as well as the performance demand of local officials lead to fiscal liabilities,which triggers massive borrowing.By using relevant panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2015 for an empirical test,the study finds that there is a positive correlation between local government debts and housing price.Therefore,it is suggested that the central government should take into account the fiscal power and the administrative power of local government when managing the local government debts scale and regulating housing price,while local governments should explore new ways to increase revenue.