宏观经济政策冲击下外部净资产的动态调整——基于估值效应视角的实证研究

The Dynamic Adjustment of Net Foreign Assets Affected by Macroeconomic Policies——Empirical Research based on Valuation Effects

随着全球金融一体化的深化,代表国家外部财富的外部净资产除受国际贸易的调整影响外,受估值效应的调整影响也在加深。本文结合两类调整影响,重点从估值效应的视角,考察在国内财政政策与货币政策冲击下外部净资产的动态调整过程。本文通过结构向量自回归(SVAR)和随机动态一般均衡模型(DSGE)的实证分析方法,表明扩张性财政政策和紧缩性货币政策冲击可使估值效应在短期内改善外部净资产,抵消部分由国际贸易带来对外部净资产的恶化效果,但在长期,外部净资产仍是由国际贸易所决定。基于此分析结论,本文以崭新的分析视角,为我国资本在"引进来"和"走出去"的过程中,实现外部财富的增值保值,提供政策建议。

With the deepening of global financial integration, the foreign assets of one country were affected not only by the adjustment effects of international trade, but also by the adjustment effects of valuation effect. This article combined two types of adjustment factors, focusing on the perspective of valuation effect, to investigate the dynamic adjustment pro- cess of the net foreign assets under the impact of domestic fiscal policy and monetary policy. This article used structure vector autoregressive （SVAR） combined with stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model （DSGE） to analyze the problem above. The analysis showed that expansionary fiscal policy and tight monetary policy impact can improve the external net as- sets through valuation effect in the short term, and offset part of the effect of the deterioration of net foreign assets caused by international trade. However, the net foreign assets are still determined by the international trade in the long term. Based on this analysis, this article takes a new analysis perspective of view to provide policy recommendations for the purpose of keeping and adding value of overseas wealth of China in the process of capital ＂coming-in＂ and ＂going-out＂ .