摘要
本文在1960—2014年间112个主要国家与地区的非平衡面板数据的基础上,从技术进步的视角出发,对技术进步在汇率错位影响经济增长过程中的中介作用进行了全面考察,并通过改变汇率错位的测度方法进行稳健性检验,对基准模型结论的可靠性进行了验证。结果发现:汇率低估对技术进步和人均GDP增长率的提升有显著的促进作用;汇率低估带来的技术进步显著促进了人均GDP增长率的提升;汇率低估除对经济增长有直接影响外,还通过技术进步渠道对经济增长产生间接影响,技术进步的中介作用显著;发达国家和发展中国家样本下技术进步在汇率错位影响经济增长过程中均发挥了显著的中介作用。
This paper uses unbalanced panel data of 112 countries from 1960 to 2014 to conduct mediation effect tests of technological advance in the process of exchange rate misalignment influencing economic growth. Results of benchmark re- gressions indicate that exchange rate misalignment significantly influences technological advance and GDP per capita growth rate, the mediation effect of technological advance is significant in both developed and developing countries, and thus techno- logical advance holds an important position in the transmission process of exchange rate misalignment affecting economic growth indirectly. Robustness check is conducted by changing the measurement method of exchange rate misalignment, and the results are consistent with those of benchmark regression.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第1期75-85,共11页
Studies of International Finance
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目"资本账户开放进程中利率政策与汇率政策的协调--基于MCI的分析框架"(项目编号:71473278)资助
关键词
汇率错位
技术进步
经济增长
中介效应
Exchange Rate Misalignment
Technological Advance
Economic Growth
Mediation Effect