汇率错位、技术进步与经济增长

Research on Exchange Rate Misalignment, Technological Advance and Economic Growth

本文在1960—2014年间112个主要国家与地区的非平衡面板数据的基础上,从技术进步的视角出发,对技术进步在汇率错位影响经济增长过程中的中介作用进行了全面考察,并通过改变汇率错位的测度方法进行稳健性检验,对基准模型结论的可靠性进行了验证。结果发现:汇率低估对技术进步和人均GDP增长率的提升有显著的促进作用;汇率低估带来的技术进步显著促进了人均GDP增长率的提升;汇率低估除对经济增长有直接影响外,还通过技术进步渠道对经济增长产生间接影响,技术进步的中介作用显著;发达国家和发展中国家样本下技术进步在汇率错位影响经济增长过程中均发挥了显著的中介作用。

This paper uses unbalanced panel data of 112 countries from 1960 to 2014 to conduct mediation effect tests of technological advance in the process of exchange rate misalignment influencing economic growth. Results of benchmark re- gressions indicate that exchange rate misalignment significantly influences technological advance and GDP per capita growth rate, the mediation effect of technological advance is significant in both developed and developing countries, and thus techno- logical advance holds an important position in the transmission process of exchange rate misalignment affecting economic growth indirectly. Robustness check is conducted by changing the measurement method of exchange rate misalignment, and the results are consistent with those of benchmark regression.