摘要
2017年世界经济增速出现了回暖势头,结束了近年来的下滑态势,虽然世界经济增长形势有了明显好转,但本质上,当前的复苏增长显然不全是技术革命导致的,其背后缺少科技革命和产业变革的动力支撑。展望2018年,世界经济有望延续当前的复苏势头,发达国家增长势头可能好于发展中国家,中国也将延续平稳增长轨迹。但是,随着全球货币宽松环境和低利率时代的结束,以及大宗商品价格的回落,全球经济复苏的力度和可持续性或将难言乐观。比较乐观的是,从中长期看,世界经济已经走向了新的发展周期,在贸易、投资、金融等多个领域都正在孕育新格局。世界经济新一轮发展周期的核心是亟待新动力,亟待真正具有革命意义的科技创新、产业创新等新的发展引擎。
In review of 2017,World economic growth changed the declining trend in recent years to appear new momentum.Although the world economic situation has been significantly improved,but in essence,the recovery is obviously not led by the technology revolution Looking forward to 2018,the world economy will continue the current recovery trend,and developed countries may be better than developing countries,China is expected to keep steady growth.However,with the ending of easy monetary policy,the interest rate rising and the fall of commodity prices,the global economic recovery will not be optimistic.In the long term,the world economy is heading for a new development cycle,and new pattern is being bred in many fields such as trade,investment and finance.The new development cycle of the world economy needs new impetus,and it is urgent to have a new development engine such as scientific and technological revolution,industrial innovation and so on.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第1期3-19,共17页
World Economy Studies
