中国对“一带一路”国家OFDI的多维距离影响研究

Study of Multi-dimensional Distances' Effects on China's OFDI in "the Belt and Road" Countries

文章从地理、经济、文化和制度层面全面考察了中国与东道国的距离对中国在"一带一路"沿线国家OFDI的影响。首先,本文直观给出了中国与61个"一带一路"沿线国家的各类距离,发现相比中日、中美"距离",中国与"一带一路"沿线国家的各类"距离"明显较近(中日之间地理距离除外),不同的距离维度对中国在"一带一路"沿线国家OFDI有不同影响;其次,聚类分析结果显示,中国对"一带一路"沿线国家的OFDI距离色彩明显,"由近及远"态势初显;再次,借鉴引力模型,基于2003~2015年中国对61个"一带一路"沿线国家OFDI的面板数据,发现除地理距离以外,文化距离也显著地抑制了中国对"一带一路"沿线国家OFDI,而经济距离的促进性和制度距离的抑制性则不显著。上述结论对于不同的模型设定具有稳健性。

In order to better promote " the Belt and Road Initiative",from the perspective of geography,economics,culture and institution,this paper examines the role of distance in the process of China's outward foreign direct investment( OFDI) in " the Belt and Road" countries comprehensively.First,compared with different dimensions of Sino-Japan and Sino-US distance,this paper reveals that the distances between China and the 61 " Belt and Road" countries are quite closer,except for Sino-Japan geographical distance; second,cluster analysis shows that the distance plays important roles in allocations of China' s OFDI in " the Belt and Road" countries,with the allocation trends phenomenon of " from near to far" appearing preliminarily; third,with gravity model,based on panel data of China's OFDI in the 61 " Belt and Road" countries in 2003 ~ 2015,besides geographical distance,cultural distance also inhibits China's OFDI in " the Belt and Road" countries significantly,while the promotion/inhabitation role of economic distance and institution distance are not significant respectively.The above conclusions are robust to different model settings.