转移支付与地区经济稳定--基于国家级贫困县划分的断点分析

Fiscal Transfers and Regional Economic Stability——Based on Fuzzy RD Analysis of Criteria for the Poorest Counties

本文使用1993年国家级贫困县资格划分的政策实验,采用模糊断点(Fuzzy RD)方法分析转移支付对地区经济稳定的影响机制。理论分析表明,转移支付将降低收入水平波动,平滑消费和分担风险,保障地区经济稳定;基于2000-2007年的县级面板数据,实证结果显示,当一般性和专项转移支付占比提高10%时,地区经济波动率将分别降低1.2%和2.5%,即转移支付有利于地区经济稳定。拓展性分析表明,转移支付的自动稳定器和相机抉择的政策作用均保障地区经济增长的稳定。因而,在调整转移支付结构、完善中央和地方的财政体系时,应提高一般性转移支付比重,并提高地方政府的自主权,以保障地区间的均衡发展和经济稳定。

This paper analyzes the impact mechanism of transfer payment on regional economic stability by using the policy experiment of the central government＇s national criteria for the poorest counties in 1993. Theoretical analysis shows that transfer payment will reduce the income fluctuations, smooth consumption and share the risk, further to ensure regional economic stability. Based on county panel data from 2000 to 2007, the empirical results show that the regional economic volatility decreased by 1.2% and 2.5%, respectively, when the general and special transfer payments increased by 10% in proportion to GDP. Extension analysis shows that the role played by the automatic stabilizers and the discretionary fiscal policy of transfer payments, which all guarantee the stability of the regional economic growth. Therefore, when adjusting the transfer payment structure and perfecting the financial system of the central and local governments, we should increase the proportion of general transfer payments and increase the autonomy of local governments so as to ensure the balanced development and economic stability among regions.