基于ANP-GRA-TOPSIS法的中国部分省份页岩气产业风险评价研究

Study on the risk assessment of some provinces' shale gas industry in China based on ANP-GRA-TOPSIS method

近年来,中国部分省级政府高度重视页岩气资源的勘探开发,试图推进本省页岩气产业发展。受地质条件、开发技术等风险因素影响,各省在页岩气开发浪潮中表现各异。为此,通过流程分析法和专家咨询法对页岩气产业风险进行了识别,并从资源风险、技术风险、经济风险、政策与体制风险、环境风险着手,构建了省级页岩气产业风险评价指标体系;建立ANP-GRA-TOPSIS综合模型,对中国12个省份页岩气产业风险进行了实证分析。结果显示:重庆市、四川省页岩气产业风险相对较低,新疆、内蒙古、云南、陕西、贵州、湖南、山西、安徽、湖北以及江苏面临的页岩气产业风险相对较高。为推动我国页岩气产业进一步发展,建议在川渝等地区加快建设页岩气勘查开发试验区,成立国家级页岩气勘探基金,构建全方位的金融支持体系等。

In recent years,the provincial governments have attached great importance to shale gas exploration and exploitation,to promote the province’s shale gas development.Under the influence of geological conditions,development technology and other risk factors,the provinces have achieved different performances.By using process analysis and expert consultation method,this paper identifies the risk of shale gas industry.From the resource risk,technology risk,economic risk,policy and system risk,and environmental risk,the paper also builds shale gas industry risk evaluation index system.Then the ANPGRA-TOPSIS model is established to evaluate the shale gas industry risk of 12 provinces.The result shows that the risk of Sichuan and Chongqing’s shale gas industry is relatively low;the risk of Xinjiang,Inner Mongolia,Yunnan,Shaanxi,Guizhou,Hunan,Shanxi,Anhui,Hubei,and Jiangsu’s shale gas industry is relatively high.To promote the further development of China’s shale gas industry,this paper suggests that China should speed up the construction of national shale gas exploration and development experimental zone in the Sichuan-Chongqing region,establish a national shale gas exploration fund,and build a comprehensive financial support system.