摘要
目的:根据全国31个地区2010至2015年手足口病发病的时间序列特征,划分不同的疫情模式,为该疾病防控的统一规划和实施提供科学依据。方法:提取各地区手足口病发病率的时间序列特征,包括季节波动、趋势、自相关和混沌等;通过层次聚类分析,划分不同的时间序列疫情模式。结果:聚类分析共产生3类疫情模式,分别为非季节模式、单发季节模式和多发季节模式。结论:对非季节模式地区,需随时加强疾病监控,进一步分析其相关因素;对单发季节模式和多发季节模式,仅需在周期性高发来临时作好相应的预防措施,从而降低疾病大面积流行的可能性。
Objective:to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of the hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) by dividing different epidemic models according to the time series characteristics in 31 regions from 2010 to 2015. Methods :Time sequence features of HFMD incidence in different regions was extracted,including seasonal fluctuations, trends, autocorrelation and chaos, etc. Different time series epidemic patterns were divided by hierarchical clustering analysis. Results:Cluster analysis produced three types of epidemic patterns, namely, non-seasonal mode, single-season and multi-season seasonal pattern. Conclusion : For non-seasonal patterns, disease surveillance should be strengthened at any time to further analyzing the relevant factors. In the single-season and multi-season model, the appropriate preventive measures should be taken only in the high incidence period to reduce the possibility of a large area of epidemic disease.
出处
《重庆医科大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第1期147-150,共4页
Journal of Chongqing Medical University
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:81473068)
国家社会科学基金资助项目(编号:14BTJ019)
关键词
手足口病
时间序列
时序特征
聚类分析
疫情模式
hand-foot-and-mouth disease
time series
timing characteristics
cluster analysis
epidemic model