动物疫病防控策略EBCR分析法及其实证

EBCR Analysis and Demonstration of Animal Epidemic Prevention and Control Strategies

文章从经济学的视角，提出了扩展的成本收益分析法-EBcR分析法，并通过对有关数据进行实证分析，评估了退出免疫和继续强制免疫这两种亚洲I型口蹄疫防控策略的经济效果，利用动力学模型对防控策略的风险大小进行预测。根据在未来不同年份采取退出免疫策略的成本效益率，得出结论：2017-2022年，全国边境与内陆地区采取退出免疫策略的EBCR值逐年递增，据此建议我国尽早退出亚洲I型的强制免疫策略，并采取以加强监测与扑杀结合为主的综合净化措施。

From the perspective of economics, this paper proposes an extended cost-benefit analysis called EBCR analysis. Through an empirical analysis of the data, the paper evaluates the economic effect of prevention and control strategies of exiting and continuing compulsory immunization for Asia I foot and mouth disease, and uses the dynamic model to predict the risk levels of prevention and control strategies. From the EBCR values for withdrawal of immunization strategies in different years the paper comes to a conclusion that the EBCR value of exiting immunization strategies across the border and inland areas of China will in- crease year by year from 2017 to 2022, on the basis of which the paper suggests that China should withdraw the compulsory immu- nization against Asia I foot and mouth disease as soon as possible, and adopt a combined measures of decontamination, namely a combination of enhanced monitoring and bacteriocidal.