中国城镇化与土地财政耦合协调关系研究——基于省级面板数据的分析

Study on the Coupling Coordination Between Urbanization and Land Finance in China: An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

通过建立城镇化与土地财政系统的多指标评价体系,运用耦合协调度模型,对2005—2015年我国31个省市的城镇化与土地财政耦合协调发展关系进行实证分析,探究其时空分异规律。研究表明:从全国层面看,我国城镇化与土地财政的耦合协调关系经历了由失调衰退—过渡—协调发展三个阶段;从区域层面看,城镇化与土地财政的耦合协调关系存在明显的地域差异,东部地区耦合协调度最高,区域内部协调度差异较小,土地财政相对于城镇化发展表现为"滞后—超前—同步"的演变特征;中部地区协调度及其内部均衡性次于东部,土地财政主要由超前型向滞后型或同步型发展;西部地区协调度最低,内部非均衡性也最显著,土地财政主要由超前型向滞后型转变。因此,我国应实行差别化的供地策略,提升城镇化水平和整体经济的运行效率,减轻政府对土地财政的依赖度,以促进城镇化与土地财政协调发展。

Through the establishment of multi-index evaluation system of urbanization and land finance system,this paper uses the coupled coordination degree model to analyze the relationship between urbanization and land finance coupling in 31 provinces and cities in China from 2005 to 2014,and to explore the law of its spatial and temporal differentiation.The study shows that from the national level,China's urbanization and land finance have experienced three stages:recession-transition-coordinated development.From the regional level,the coupling relationship between urbanization and land finance has a significant correlation with regional economic development.In the east,the average of the coupling degree of urbanization and land finance is the highest,the infra-regional difference is small,and land finance relative to urbanization is characterized by"lag-advance-synchronous".In the middle,the land finance relative to urbanization is mainly from the advanced type to the lag or synchronous type.In the west,the coupling degree of urbanization and land finance is the lowest,and the land finance relative to urbanization is from the advanced type to the lag type.This paper puts forward the relevant policy suggestions to promote the coordinated development of urbanization and land finance from the aspects of implementing differentiated supply strategies,improving the quality of urbanization and the efficiency of the whole economy,and reducing the government's dependence on land finance.