“全面二孩”政策背景下连云港市学龄人口预测——基于2017-2036年学前教育阶段

Lianyungang School Age Population Projections under Background of ‘Comprehensive Two-child Policy’——Based on Preschool Education Stage from 2017 to 2036

基于2010年全国第六次人口普查数据和连云港市统计局2016年统计数据,选择CPPS人口预测工具,对2017年至2036年间连云港市学前教育在园幼儿数进行预测,结果发现,“全面二孩政策”对连云港市学前教育阶段学龄人口会有较大影响,但影响并不可持续。

Based on the sixth national population census data in 2010 and statistics data of Lianyungang Statistical Bureau in 2016, this study predicted the number of school - age children in kindergartens in 2017 - 2036 by CPPS population forecasting tools. Findings are that ＇ ComprenhensiveTwo - child Policy＇ will have a greater impact on the preschool school - age population in Lianyungang, but the influence won ＇ t last.