生命历程流行病学中的动态路径分析

Dynamic path analysis on life course epidemiology

现代流行病学研究中，疾病或健康相关事件的发生常难以完全用短期的暴露状态来解释。生命历程流行病学着眼于生命早期阶段的暴露因素对个人整个生命历程中的健康或疾病状况所产生的长期影响，并逐渐得到重视。当对暴露因素的病因机制及其通过其他因素产生的作用大小进行分析时，由于时间因素的存在，传统统计分析方法难以满足生命历程流行病学中病因分析的需求。本文概述了能用于生命历程病因分析的动态路径分析方法，包括该模型的结构、意义及其在生命历程流行病学病因分析中的应用。同时说明了如何准备数据、进行病因机制分析，并证明动态路径分析模型可作为生命历程流行病学中有效的病因分析工具。

In the studies of modern epidemiology, exposure in a short term cannot fully elaborate the mechanism of the development of diseases or health-related events. Thus, lights have been shed on to life course epidemiology, which studies the exposures in early life time and their effects related to the development of chronic diseases. When exploring the mechanism leading from one exposure to an outcome and its effects through other factors, due to the existence of time-variant effects, conventional statistic methods could not meet the needs of etiological analysis in life course epidemiology. This paper summarizes the dynamic path analysis model, including the model structure and significance, and its application in life course epidemiology. Meanwhile, the procedure of data processing and etiology analyzing were introduced. In conclusion, dynamic path analysis is a useful tool which can be used to better elucidate the mechanisms that underlie the etiology of chronic diseases.