基于背景值优化的GM(1,1)模型在牡丹江GDP预测中的应用

The Application of GM(1,1) Model Based on the Optimization of Background value to the GDP Prediction in Mudanjiang

针对GDP是制定地区经济发展战略目标和宏观经济政策的重要参考指标，若能对此指标进行准确的预测，则将会极大有利于该地区制定科学有效的经济政策．鉴于此，对能够影响传统GM（1，1）模型预测精度的背景值进行了优化分析，得到了背景值优化的GM（1，1）预测模型，利用牡丹江市近六年来的GDP数据，将背景值优化的GM（1，1）模型与传统GM（1，1）模型的预测误差做了对比分析，发现前者较后者在预测精度上有了较好的改善，并利用背景值优化的GM（1，1）模型对牡丹江市未来几年的GDP进行了科学预测，并依据预测结果，给出了提高牡丹江经济增长及增长方式转变的对策建议．

GDP is an important reference index for making strategic objectives of regional economic development and macroeconomic policies. If this index can be predicted accurately, it would contribute enormously to making scientific and effective economic policies for the region. In view of this, this paper gives an optimum analysis to the background value which can affect the forecasting precision of traditional GM （1,1） model, and then obtains the GM （1,1） model with the background value optimization. Based on the GDP data of Mudanjiang in recent six years, the paper compares the prediction error of the GM （1,1） model with the background value optimization and the traditional GM （1,1） model, and finds that the former has better improvement in prediction accuracy than the latter. Using the GM （1,1） model with the background value optimization, this paper predicts Mudanjiang＇ s GDP in the next few years, and gives the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the economic growth and change the mode of economic growth of the city.