基于FUZZY-FTA-BN的涂装车间除尘器爆炸事故分析

Analysis of ESP Explosion Accident in Painting Shop Based on FUZZY-FTA-BN

为弥补现有非高危行业高危区域的汽车涂装车间安全评价方法的缺陷与不足,提出基于FUZZY-FTA-BN的涂装车间除尘器爆炸事故分析模型。编制系统故障树,利用GeNIe软件将其转化为贝叶斯网络,应用模糊集合理论和德尔斐法确定故障树基本事件发生概率,运用贝叶斯网络双向推理技术进行故障诊断和预测,通过重要度排序找出易导致顶事件发生的最主要因素。结果表明该方法可有效地识别出导致顶事件发生的主要影响因素。经过实例验证:风机故障是导致除尘器系统爆炸的主要因素。

The paper, proposing a analysis model of the ESP explosion accident to remedy the safety assessment method for the auto painting shop in the high-risk area of non-high-risk industries, is based on FUZZY-FTA-BN theory. The Bayesian network is transformed from the systematized fault tree by the Ge NIe software and the probability of basic events, conducted by the fuzzy sets and Delphi method, is determined. The most important factor for the top event is identified by the sequence of importance with the prediction and diagnosis by the two-side reason function of the Bayesian network. The results show that through this method the main factor leading to the top event can be effectively identified, as in practice, the malfunction of the is the major factor causes the explosion of ESP system.