中国财政支出乘数研究——基于金融摩擦与“超低利率”的视角

Fiscal Multipliers of China: From the Perspective of Financial Frictions and the Low Interest Rate

近年来,宏观调控的精准性日益受到重视。就财政政策而言,精准政策的制定与实施离不开财政支出乘数的科学测算。然而,现有中国财政支出乘数的定量研究非常缺乏,且忽视如下两个当前中国经济运行的重要特征:金融市场摩擦严重,基准利率已降至历史低位。有鉴于此,本文首次将金融摩擦与"超低利率"同时纳入中国财政问题研究框架,并突破已有文献多关注财政支出产出乘数的限制,系统测算了产出乘数、就业乘数、消费乘数和投资乘数。研究发现:中国财政支出的产出乘数、就业乘数、消费乘数与投资乘数分别为3.44、2.13、0.73和5.74;忽视刻画金融摩擦和"超低利率"将较大程度上低估中国财政支出乘数;金融摩擦与"超低利率"彼此加强,导致综合效应显著高于二者各自效应的简单相加。

Policy makers have stressed the criticality of the precise macro - control. In terms of fiscal policy, the implementation of the precise policy heavily relies on the scientific calculations of the fiscal multipliers. However, the quantitative research on China＇s fiscal muhipliers is basically blank. Besides, current research usually ignores two important characteristics of China＇s economy ： serious financial frictions and low benchmark interest rate. This paper simultaneously incorporates these two characteristics into the existing framework and systematically calculates the fiscal multipliers of output, employment, consumption and investment. The results show： The multipliers above are 3.44, 2. 13, 0. 78 and 5.77, respectively; Neglecting financial frictions and low interest rate will significantly underestimate the fiscal multipliers of China; Financial frictions and low interest rate interact with each other, resulting in their comprehensive effects being much higher than the summation of their respective effects.