信贷供给周期对企业投资效率的影响研究——兼论宏观经济不确定条件下的异质性

Impact of Credit Supply Cycle on Investment Efficiency and Heterogeneous Effect from Macroeconomic Uncertainty

本文研究了信贷供给周期对企业投资效率的影响,并且探讨了这种影响在不同宏观经济不确定性条件下的异质性及其传导机制。结果发现,信贷供给增加会降低投资-投资机会敏感度,即信贷扩张降低了投资效率。从原因上看,信贷扩张降低了信贷资源配置效率,并且在更高程度上强化了大企业和国有企业的投资水平。进一步地,在宏观经济不确定性较高的时期,信贷供给增加对投资效率的负面影响较小。从传导渠道上看,在宏观经济不确定性较高的时期,信贷供给增加会使增长机会较多的企业获得更多贷款,并且使企业的投资意愿上升。本文揭示了中国信贷供给政策对投资效率的影响及其传导机制,对于新常态下如何更好地进行总需求管理具有一定的启示。

This paper investigates the effect of credit supply cycle on investment efficiency, how this effect differs in periods of different macroeconomic uncertainty and its mechanism. Results show that increasing credit supply will decrease the sensitivity of investment to investment opportunity, thus decreasing the investment efficiency. From perspective of reasons, credit expansion decreases credit resources allocation efficiency＂ and enhances bigger firms and state - owned firms＇ investment to a larger extent. Furthermore, during the period of higher macroeconomic uncertainty, the negative effect of credit expansion on investment efficiency will be smaller. From the perspective of mechanism, during the period of higher macroeconomic uncertainty, credit supply expansion will make firms with more growth opportunities obtain more loans and increase firms＇ propensity for investment. This paper uncovers the impact of ChinEs credit supply policy on firm investment efficiency and its mechanism, and has some implications for managing aggregate demand during new normal period.