吉林省耕地压力指数时空分异特征及其预测研究

Space Differentiation Characteristics of Cultivated Land Pressure Index and Their Prediction in Jilin

笔者运用耕地压力指数模型和灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型,对吉林省2003—2012年间的耕地利用压力指数时空分异特征进行分析,并对其动态变化和未来发展趋势进行了预测。研究结果显示:随着时间的推移,加之国家放开"二胎政策"人口不断在增加,未来人口会出现增加趋势,即使在规定未来十年内人们的人均食物需求量也会不增加的基础上,最小人均耕地面积的增加幅度越来越小,以及大量耕地向建设用地转换,使得耕地压力指数有过大的趋向,而且2017—2027年吉林省的耕地压力指数处于上升的趋向,即使耕地压力不是很明显,但仍不可忽视。

The authors used cultivated land pressure index model and the gray system theories GM（1,1） model to analyze time and space differentiation characteristics of Jilin during 2003 to 2012, and predict their dynamic change and development trend. The results showed that： with the passage of time, and in addition to the＂two-child policy＂, the future population would increase, even if per capita food demand in the future ten years would not increase; since the increasing rate of per capita minimum cultivated land tended to be smaller, and alarge number of cultivated land was turned to construction land, the cultivated land pressure index had atendency to be too large and the cultivated land pressure index of Jilin in 2017 to 2027 would in a rising trend,even if the cultivated land pressure would not be obvious, the trend still can not be ignored.