基于工程安全和效益的水库清淤决策方法

A decision-making method of reservoir sediment dredging based on engineering safety and profit

淤积影响水库防洪安全和兴利效益,工程安全以及清淤成本与收益是当前水库清淤决策需要优先考虑的因素.引入工程安全因子和效益因子,针对加高大坝和机械清淤两种主要水库淤积管理方式,以两者分别降低的溃坝概率之比表征工程安全因子,以两者的投资回收期之比表征效益因子,再利用工程安全因子与效益因子构建了清淤决策模型,并根据淤积对工程安全的不同影响程度提出单因子决策或回归模型决策的因子权重与判别准则.通过在甘肃南营水库清淤工程决策中的应用,得出该水库适宜于采用机械清淤的结论,验证了模型的实用性和合理性,可为未来国家层面的水库清淤决策提供科学方法.

Sedimentation affects the safety of reservoir flood control and the profit of reservoir operation. Project safety and the cost and benefit of dredging are the priority factors of reservoir dredging decision-making. Aiming at two major reservoir sedimentation management methods of dam heightening or mechanical dredging, a dredging decision-making model is established by introducing the engineering safety factor and the profit factor. The engineering safety factor is characterized by the ratio of dam failure probability decrease through each sedimentation management method and the profit factor is characterized by the ratio of each method＇s payback period. The weight coefficients in the decision-making method are determined by linear regression analysis based on massive engineering data collected from real project sedimentation cases. In terms of different degree of influence on engineering safety by sedimentation, the dredging decision-making model could be simplified as a single factor model. This model is then applied for Nanying Reservoir dredging project in Gansu Province and the mechanical dredging decision is made which verifies its practicability and rationality. This study could provide a scientific method for decision-making of reservoir dredging at national level in the future.