基于WSR方法论的冰雪赛事风险评估研究

Research on the Risk Assessment of Ice and Snow Events with the WSR System Methodology

采用文献资料、德尔菲、层次分析、ABC分类等方法,立足冰雪赛事的研究成果以及风险管理与评价的理论基础对冰雪赛事进行了风险研究。首先,从"物理-事理-人理"层面分析了冰雪赛事风险,建立了冰雪赛事风险分析模型,析出致险因子;其次,利用体育赛事风险分析模型分析了冰雪赛事致险因素,初步构建体育赛事风险指标体系预选指标;再次,采用专家调查法经过两轮专家调查对初选指标进行筛选确立"物-事-人"三个层面的体育赛事风险评价指标体系。该体系包含3个一级指标、7个二级指标、26个三级指标;根据权重分类,有2个指标有极高风险、5个高度风险、5个中度风险、14个低度风险。根据风险的不同等级,加以预防和控制,尽量避免赛事风险的发生。

Based on the literature data, Delphi method, analytic hierarchy process and ABC classification method, the research results of ice and snow event and the theoretical basis of risk management and evaluation are presented. Firstly, the risk of ice and snow events is analyzed from the aspects of ＂Wuli-Shili-Renli＂, and the risk analysis.model of ice and snow events is established to collect the risk factors. Secondly, the risk analy- sis model of sports events is used to analyze the risk factors of ice and snow sports, and preliminarily construct the index system of risk index system of sports events. Again, using the method of expert investigation after two rounds of expert investigation for screening primary indicators established ＂WU-SHI-REN＂ three levels of sports event risk evaluation index system, the system includes three level indicators, 7 secondary indexes, 26 three-lev- el index, according to the weight classification, there are two indicators that have extremely high risk; there＂ are five high risk ; there are five moderate risk ; there are 14 low risk. According to the different levels of risk, it is a must to prevent and control, to avoid the occurrence of risk events.