人因失误因果关系判定中多重相关性问题

Multiplitudinous correlations in the causative relationship assessment of human errors

在人因事故分析中,导致事故的人因失误因素之间存在的交互作用很大程度上会影响清晰判定这些因素对事故所起的作用。从影响因素间相关性、相关性强度、因果关系、因果关系强度概念入手,提出了相关性强度与因果关系强度相应定义与命题,通过把人因系统内在作用关系映射为有向网络关系图,建立事件与因素网络拓扑关系图,依据链路预测思路,分析了判定间接影响关系与直接影响关系的方法,构建了消除多重相关性算法及人因失误因素综合判定方法,并通过实例验证了本算法的合理性。

This paper intends to define a series of related concepts,including the correlations,the correlation intensity,the causality and the causative intensity that may account for the happening of a certain accident or incident. For,there may exist a series of multiple causes that may account for a certain accident or incident and therefore,it is necessary to make out the multi-sided correlations of the likely causes that may hinder us from disclosing effectively the true causative relationship that may account for the true accident. Given the aforementioned concepts,the paper has put forward the following three interrelated propositions and proved the relationship between the correlation intensity and causality intensity. At the same time,it has also proposed the internal relationship of the system to the network topology in which the nodes are supposed to represent the events or factors,the weight of the directed edge that may denote the strength of the functional relationship between the node events and the corresponding factors（ e. g. the strength of a causative relation）,with the arrow signs of the edge indicating the causal relationship that can be inferred from the previously gained knowledge. It is just on the basis of the network topology relationship of events and factors established above that we have worked out the method for assessing the indirect and direct influences among the events and factors according to the link prediction method,and also worked out the relative algorithm to eliminate the multiple correlations accordingly. On the other hand,the aforementioned factors can also be divided into two different levels,the direct correlation level and the indirect correlated level,in which the direct correlation ones reflect the direct influence,whereas the indirect ones can reflect the indirect effects on the factors of the events. In such a situation,it would be possible to work out the precise influential levels by calculating the intensity of the causal relationship between the human accidents and the human errors based on the above formula for calculating the established indirect influences. And,eventually,the aforementioned formula can be introduced into the total solution to the synthetic effects of the coefficients. What is more,the said formula can also demonstrate how to synthesize the direct and indirect influences in the process of analyzing human accidents. To prove this point,we have taken an actual example to verify the true reasonableness and the rationality of the said method.