全新世亚洲季风变异与干旱演变及其驱动机制

Holocene Asian Summer Monsoon Variability and Arid Environment Evolution: Processes and Mechanisms

近年,热带太平洋地区高分辨率气候记录研究对学界普遍接受的气候突变"高纬驱动说"提出质疑,全新世气候突变事件成为全球变化研究的前沿热点。亚洲季风-干旱环境是地球气候系统的关键组成部分,在全球物质和能量循环中起着重要作用。然而,亚洲季风区和干旱区全新世气候突变事件研究仍十分薄弱,百年-年代际气候变率研究尚未展开。本项目选择湖泊沉积和石笋为研究材料,以亚洲季风区和干旱区高分辨率气候记录的关键空白区为重点研究区,开展全新世气候变化的高分辨率、多指标综合集成研究以及多模式、多尺度数值模拟研究,以期查明亚洲季风区和干旱区全新世气候突变事件的结构特征与空间表现、百年-年代际气候变率的时空特征以及现代增温的自然背景,阐明全新世不同时间尺度亚洲季风变异和干旱演变的动力学过程与驱动机制。本项目有望在全新世气候研究领域取得引领性学术成果,在理论认识层面,为理解全新世气候变化机制提出原创性观点;在国家需求层面,为评估和应对全球变化提供科学支撑。

Recent studies of high-resolution climate records from the tropical Pacific challenged the widely accepted high-latitude-driving hypothesis on abrupt climate chan-ges,and thus Holocene abrupt climate events have be-come the hot topic of research on global change.The A-sian monsoon-arid environment, as a major component of the Earth climate system, plays a significant role in global material and energy cycles.However, both ab-rupt climate changes and the centennial-to-multi-decad-al climate variability in Asian monsoon and arid regions during the Holocene remain poorly understood.The pro-posed project will conduct high-precision dating and high-resolution, multi-proxy analyses of Holocene lake sediments and stalagmites from the key gaps of high-res-olution climate records in Asian monsoon and arid re-gions as well as multi-model,multi-timescale numerical simulations.The objectives of the project are to reveal the structural features and spatial expressions of abrupt climate events and the spatio-temporal characteristics of the centennial-to-multi-decadal climate variability in A-sian monsoon and arid regions during the Holocene and the natural background of the current warming as well as to elucidate the dynamic processes and forcing mecha-nisms of Asian summer monsoon variability and arid en-vironment evolution on different timescales during the Holocene.This project is expected to gain leading aca-demic achievements in the field of Holocene climate re-search, promoting orginal views in theory for under-standing the dynamics of Holocene climate changes and providing scientific support in practice for evaluating and coping with global change.