全球变化驱动下陆表自然和人文要素相互作用及区域表现

The Interaction Between Natural and Anthropogenic Factors With Their Regional Performance Driven by Global Change

全球变化是自然与人文要素共同作用的结果,也会改变陆表关键要素的变化趋势、周期及空间格局。评价和预估陆表关键要素的相互作用机制及其对全球变化的响应与反馈,对认识和应对全球变化具有重要意义。然而,当前的研究受到高精度陆表要素数据集缺乏、人文要素和自然要素相互作用机制研究薄弱、多要素空间叠加效应认识不足等限制。本专项拟发展气候、水文观测结果的成因分析及精度校准方法,构建高质量陆表气候水文数据集;构建高分辨率人文要素的历史数据集和未来社会经济情景;阐明陆表关键要素的相互作用机制及其空间分异规律,揭示其对全球变化的响应机理,预估陆表系统格局的转折点,评估中国典型区域空间质量变化,为国家经济、人口与自然要素的协调发展和应对气候变化提供科学决策服务。

As a result of the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors, global change can affact the trend, cycle and spatial pattern of land surface varia-bles.It is important to evaluate and predict the interac-tion between land surface variables and their responses and feedbacks to global change.However, existing studies primarily focused on the interaction mechanism between single anthropogenic and natural factor,with a lack of systematic understanding of the mechanism of the interaction of multiple factors.In order to explorate the interaction mechanisms and their regional perform-ance,it is necessary to develop the analysis and cali-bration method of climatic and hydrological observation results.Then the natural and anthropogenic land sur-face variables datasets with high quality can be con-structed.The response mechanisms to global change can be revealed given the intreaction and spatial differ-entiation.The threshold of land surface system can be estimated and the change of the regional spatial quality can be assessed.The research can shed on the coordi-nated development of the national economy, population and natural elements, and can provide scientific deci-sion-making service for the response to climate change.