高影响海-气环境事件预报模式的高分辨率海洋资料同化系统研发

Development of High Resolution Ocean Data Assimilation System With High Impact Ocean-Atmosphere Environment Event Prediction Model

由于国家安全与社会经济可持续发展的迫切需求,MJO、ENSO、IOD和PDO等高影响海-气环境事件的预测一直是一个重要的研究领域。多尺度、多过程的复杂性使这些海气环境事件的预测至今仍然是气候科学最具挑战性的问题之一。由于海洋成分的长期记忆能力,耦合模式海洋成分的预报初始化对它们的预报有非常重要的作用。然而,国内现有的气候预测系统缺乏耦合模式框架下先进的海洋资料同化系统,同化的海洋资料种类也亟待增加。而针对MJO等季节内尺度和PDO等年代际尺度气候变率,现有气候预测系统的研究水平和业务能力更处于薄弱或空白状态,滞后于国际发展水平。针对全球变化的背景,需着重开展耦合模式的海洋资料同化研究,发展全球耦合模式的海洋资料同化系统,从而提高气候预测能力,增强我国气候防灾减灾的手段,提升我国全球变化研究的竞争力和国际地位。基于我国自主研发的海气耦合模式,项目将开展全球和区域多源海洋观测资料同化技术研究,突破耦合资料同化中海洋和大气之间的动力、热力平衡的关键技术问题,发展耦合模式框架下的参数估计和约束系统,研制具有业务化前景的高分辨率海洋模式的耦合同化系统,并开展MJO、IOD、ENSO和PDO等高影响海-气环境事件的综合评估和预测示范应用。

The forecast of high impact sea-atmosphere envi-ronmental events, such as MJO, ENSO, IOD and PDO, is very important in the national interest.The complexity of multi-scales and multiple process makes the prediction of these events very challenging.Due to the ocean＇s long term memory,the oceanic observations are very important for the coupled model prediction. However,the existing climate prediction system in Chi-na lacks an advanced oceanic data assimilation system to fully assimilate the oceanic observations into the cou-pled models.The prediction skills of intra-seasonal scale events（such as MJO）and decadal scale events （such as PDO）in current climate prediction systems are still very low.This project attempts to develop new theories and methods that are suitable for assimilating multiple scale oceanic observations into the coupled models.Emphasis is placed on developing the key tech-niques that keep the dynamical and physical balances of the model states during the assimilation, and methods that accurately estimate model status and parameters u-sing oceanic observations.On this basis, we will con-struct an assmilation system that has the potential to be used in operational systems, from which ensmble pre-diction experiments will be conducted.The predictabili-ty of the high-impact environmental events including MJO,IOD,ENSO and PDO will be comprehensively e-valuated and analyzed.