基于气象要素的黄河宁夏段流凌密度预报模型

Ice Floe Forecast Model in Ningxia Section of Yellow River Based on Meteorological Factors

历史上,黄河宁夏段曾多次发生漫滩甚至决堤淹田等重大气象衍生次生灾害,带来严重损失,且大多发生在封河或开河过程中,流凌密度是判断开、封河的重要指标。本研究利用黄河宁夏段2008—2015年气象水文资料,对流凌密度与其前3~7天的气象要素进行多元线性回归和单要素曲线模拟,结果表明:利用气象要素资料开展流凌密度定量化预报可行,模型拟合度较高,可实现基于数值天气预报的黄河凌汛流凌密度预报业务。

In the history of the Yellow River in Ningxia,there had been floodplain and even flooded fields,which brought about serious losses.Most of these disasters occurred in the process of freezing and melting,and the ice floe density is one of the important indicators.Based on the meteorological and hydrological data of the Ningxia section of the Yellow River in Ningxia from 2008 to 2015,the paper carries out the simulation of the ice floe density and the meteorological elements 3 to 7 days before the ice floe occurred by means of the multiple/linear regression methods.The results show that the model is reliable,and the meteorological elements can be used to calculate the ice floe density.It is possible to make the ice floe density prediction of Yellow River based on numerical weather prediction.