基于Maxent模型的原种红椿适生区变迁预测及在引种区划上的应用

Prediction of distributional change of Toona ciliata var.ciliate and application in regionalization of introduction based on MaxEnt

利用原种红椿(Toona.ciliata Roem.var.ciliate)在云南实际分布数据及19个生物气象因子数据MaxEnt软件对其在当代、未来(2050、2070 s)气候条件下的适生区分布及面积(包括云南省和全国2种区域尺度)进行预测.原种红椿最大熵模型平均训练AUC值、测试AUC值分别为0.820、0.826,表明该模型对它们适生区的预测精度能达较好水平.最暖季度降水量、昼夜温差月均值、年均温变化范围、最暖季度平均温度、最湿季度降水量、最冷季度平均温度、最冷月最低温、最湿季度平均温度、年均温原种红椿分布的主要因子,在云南省尺度下原种红椿的适生区,特别是中、高度适生区与实际分布高度一致,对它们在该区域内的人工林发展区域的选择具有直接指导意义.在全国尺度下,适生区范围和面积可能大于实际分布,但中、高度适生区与实际分布记录相似度较高,可为其物种保护、异地引种保存提供借鉴作用.另外,与当代相比未来的适生面积变化不大,但有一定幅度增加,说明全球变暖有利于原种红椿繁衍(至少无负面影响).

Based on the current distribution of Toona ciliata Roem. var. ciliate in Yunnan Province, 19 bioclimate factors and the maximum entropy （MaxEnt）, the potential distribution area in Yunnan and China under the current and future （2050s,2070s） climatic situation was predicted.The mean training AUC and testing AUC of MaxEnt of the species were 0.820 and 0.826, meaning the prediction distribution was credible.Monthly mean diurnal temperature range, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, CV of precipitation, mean temperature of the driest quarter, precipitation of the driest quarter, precipitation of the warmest quarter, isothermality, mean tempera- ture of the wettest quarter, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the coldest month, standard deviation of seasonal temperature change, precipitation of the wettest month, annual mean temperature are mutual influence on the suitable habitats of T. ciliata Roem. var. ciliate.The suitable habitats, especially the moderately and highly suitable regions are highly consistent with the real distribution area, showing practical guiding significance to the development of planting forestry of T. ciliata Roem. var. ciliate in Yunnan Province.In China, the suitable habitats are larger, but the moderately and highly suitable regions are highly identical to the real distribution area, which could be used as the reference to the species protection and introduction. Furthermore, the potential habitats and areas in future will get a bit larger which illustrates that the globe warming is favorable for the development and reproduction of T. ciliata Roem. var. ciliate, or at least, has no adverse effect.