地方政府投资与产业结构变迁的区域差异性

Regional Differences of Local Government Investment and Industrial Structure Change

供给侧结构性改革背景下,产业结构的升级和调整,既要发挥市场的决定性作用,也要发挥政府的作用。基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,通过对2005—2015年中国31省市面板数据进行计量分析,研究中国分权框架下地方政府投资对区域内产业结构变迁的影响,并引入虚拟变量分析区域间差异。结果表明地方政府投资促进了区域内产业结构变迁,其中对东部地区第三产业拉动最大,对中部地区第一、二产业拉动最大,西部地区各省市差异过大,对第三产业拉动较明显;在进一步的差异分析中,发现东部与西部之间政府投资对三大产业变迁有明显结构性差异,而中部与西部之间的差异无法确定。

In the context of the structural reform of the supply side,the change and adjustment of the industrial structure should not only be determined by the market,but also be influenced by the government.Based on the Cobb-Douglas production function and the analysis of panel data of 31 provinces and municipal cities in China from 2005 to 2015,this paper studies the influence of local government investment on the change of industrial structure in the region under the framework of decentralization in China,and introduces dummy variables to analyze regional differences.The results show that local government investment does promote the change of industrial structure in the regions.The third industry in the eastern region and the first and second industry in the central region are the most affected.The differences between the provinces in the western region are much too prominent,which is more obvious to the third industry.In the further analysis of differences,it is found that the government investment between the east and the west has significant structural differences,but the differences between the central and the western remains undetermined.