“物价-失业”关系的再探讨--基于“三角”菲利普斯曲线

The Analysis of “Price-Unemployment”:Relationship Based on the “Triangle” Phillips Curve

笔者在对各种类型菲利普斯曲线的发展进行综述的基础上,利用蔡昉(2004)的方法估计了我国的调查失业率,并通过比较分析选取了恰当的通货膨胀率等数据。基于"三角"菲利普斯曲线,首先,验证我国失业率和通货膨胀率是否存在相互替代关系。接着,分析我国通货膨胀的影响因素并测度了自然失业率。实证结果表明,我国失业率和通货膨胀率存在此消彼长关系。影响我国通货膨胀变动的因素,首先是通货膨胀自身的持续性,其次是我国政府一直实施投资拉动型经济增长模式引起的供给冲击,最后是短期失业率的变动。我们所测度的自然失业率的变动趋势和政府所公布的城镇登记失业率数据大体一致,这证明了我国城镇登记失业率数据可以作为我国失业率长期变动趋势的代理变量。这也为我国政府制定调控物价政策和促进就业政策提供了科学依据。

On the basis of summarizing the development of various types of Phillips curve, this paper uses Cai Fang＇s （2004） method to estimate China＇s unemployment survey, and selects the appropriate data of infla- tion rate through comparative analysis. The paper verifies the mutual substitution that may exist between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate based on the theory of the ＂triangle＂ Phillips curve, analyzes the in- fluence factors of China＇s inflation and measures the natural unemployment rate. The empirical results indicate that there exists negative relation between the unemployment and inflation in China. It is also proved that three factors affect china＇s inflation ： the continuity of inflation, supply shocks of investment-led growth mode of Chi- na and short-term changes of unemployment rate. The accordance of measurement on the natural rate of unem- ployment with the registered urban unemployment rate proves that China＇s urban registered unemployment rate can be used as a proxy variable for the long-term trend of China＇s unemployment rate. These findings may be helpful in the pricing for Chinese government regulation policy and provide a scientific basis for employment policy-makings.