“中等收入陷阱”:产业结构升级的障碍

The Middle Income Trap Can Be an Obstacle for Industrial Structure Upgrading

"中等收入陷阱"一般是指中等收入国家经济发展到一定阶段出现的一种停滞状态。这个概念于2007年被提出以后,引起国际经济学界的关注,发表了大量的学术论文。但是,我国经济学界对"中等收入陷阱"原因的分析存在泛化的情况。实际上,第二次世界大战结束以来,有的发展中国家没有经历"中等收入陷阱",有的发展中国家跨越了"中等收入陷阱",也有的发展中国家陷入了"中等收入陷阱"。"中等收入陷阱"不仅是发展中国家劳动密集型产业失去竞争力造成的,而且是发展中国家产业结构升级达不到一定的程度造成的。尽管产业结构取决于经济发展水平,但它能否适时升级会对经济发展造成重要影响。我国正面临"中等收入陷阱"的挑战,必须要促进科学技术进步,推动产业结构升级,才能跨越"中等收入陷阱"。

＂The middle income trap＂ refers to an economic stagnation which might arise after middle income countries en- ter a certain stage of economic development. It caused a worldwide attention in international economic circle accompanied with an increasing number of researches and papers conducted or published since its inception in 2007. However, the analyses on the causes of the middle income trap were generalized in China. From a global perspective,it actually varies in different situa- tions： some developing countries in fact did not fall into this trap,while some developing countries stride across this trap,but some developing countries unfortunately fell into this trap. The middle income trap is not only caused by the loss of the com- petitiveness in labor intensive industries in developing countries. It can be more likely caused by the undue upgrading of its in- dustrial structure in developing countries. Although the industrial structure depends on the level of its economic develop- ment, the upgrading of industrial structure imposes important impacts on economic development. China is currently confront- ed with challenges from the middle income trap. It is highly suggested that China should promote advancement of science and technology so as to upgrade industrial structure timely to avoid the middle income trap.