港口及海岸工程防灾理论体系的研发及其应用

Study on Harbour and Coastal Engineering Disaster Prediction:Theory and Application

本文介绍了中国自主研发的复合极值分布理论和多维复合极值理论30多年来在国内外的引用和应用,特别是2005年Katrina和2012年Sandy飓风对新奥尔良市和新泽西州及纽约周边带来的灾难性破坏,以及2013年菲特台风诱发上海超警戒水位,都验证了1982及2006年使用上述理论预测结果的正确性。本文就该理论在海洋,海岸、港口等工程防灾设防标准中的应用,对国内外有关规范的防灾标准进行了风险评估和建议。

This paper introduced our proposed unit-variant and multivariate compound extreme value distribution(CEVD and MCEVD)models.It is showed that all the planned,designed and constructed coastal infrastructures accepted the traditional safety regulations are menaced by possibility of future typhoon/hurricane disasters and cannot satisfy the safety requirements with the increasing tendency of the extreme natural hazards in the past 35 years.2005 hurricane Katrina,Rita and 2012 hurricane Sandy induced disasters proved 1982 CEVD and 2006 MCEVD predicted extreme hazards in New Orleans,Gulf of Mexico and Philadelphia areas.2013 typhoon Fitow induced disaster in China also proved MCEVD2006 predicted results.This paper shows that all the planned,designed and constructed coastal infrastructures accepted the traditional safety regulations are menaced by possibility of future typhoon/hurricane disasters and cannot satisfy the safety requirements with the increasing tendency of the extreme natural hazards.