金融市场发展对一国储备货币地位的影响与人民币国际化——基于PSTR模型的实证分析

The nonlinear effect of financial market development on status as a reserve currency and Renminbi internationalization:Empirical analysis based on PSTR model

文章以1999—2013年美、日、欧、英、瑞、中的面板数据为样本,构建面板平滑转换模型(PSTR),分析一国金融市场发展对其储备货币地位的非线性影响。研究结果表明:金融市场规模和效率对一国储备货币地位具有显著的非线性影响,影响系数在高低体制构成的区间上进行转换;金融市场效率的影响整体上大于金融市场规模;加大金融市场开放程度不应成为提升人民币的国际储备货币地位的捷径。

This paper employs PSTR model and empirically tests the nonlinear relationship between financial market development and the status as international reserve using1993-2013 panel data. The results are as follows: firstly, the nonlinear relationship between financial market size, efficiency and international reserve status is significant; secondly, financial market efficiency has more effect on reserve status than financial market size; thirdly, opening financial market quickly is not a good way to improving RMB as international reserve.