反思对中国外汇储备问题的讨论

Review of Discussions About China's Foreign Exchange Reserves

经历了近年来外汇储备急涨急跌的波动后,我们有机会反思和检讨前期关于中国外汇储备问题的诸多讨论。主要结论是:中国外汇储备充裕,确实有助于抵御跨境资本流动冲击风险,为汇率改革和调整争取了时间;保储备不是保规模而是保信心,它与保汇率不是二选一的选择题,而是一个硬币的两面;束缚货币政策的不是央行是否持有外汇储备,而是汇率政策操作;本币对外贬值有助于减少央行外汇储备持有的汇兑损失,但这是一种短视而危险的做法,因为央行持有外汇储备要算大账,而不能只算小账。

After witnessing the drastic fluctuations of foreign exchange reserves in recent years,we havereviewed the previous discussions about China's foreign exchange reserves.Our mainconclusions are as follows: China's abundant foreign exchange reserves indeed help fend offcross-border capital flow shocks and bought time for exchange rate reforms and adjustments.The aim of defending the reserves is not to keep a certain scale,but to protect marketconfidence.Defending the reserves is not an alternative for defending the renminbi's exchangerate; they are actually two sides of one coin.It is not whether the central bank keeps foreignreserves,but how the exchange rate policy is carried out,that constrains the monetary policy.It's short-sighted and dangerous to devalue the renminbi with a view to reducing exchangelosses of foreign reserves held by the central bank.