中国天然气产量峰值研究及建议

Natural gas production peaks in China: Research and strategic proposals

天然气产量峰值研究,对于国家能源战略制定、天然气产业链协调发展、油公司投资决策等都具有重要的意义。为此,从天然气资源地质与开发特点出发,利用多种方法分析研究了中国常规气(含致密气)、煤层气和页岩气的产量峰值。结果表明:(1)2035年中国天然气总产量将达到2800×10~8~3300×10~8 m^3、2050年将达到3300×10~8~4100×10~8 m^3;(2)预测期内,中国常规气产量峰值可见,煤层气和页岩气产量峰值则需持续跟踪研究;(3)考虑到未来天然气水合物勘探开发的突破,中国天然气产量增长潜力较大、前景光明。为实现能源转型和节能减排的战略目标、保证安全平稳供气,必须及时研究判断国际政治、经济、能源发展形势,谋划全球天然气战略布局。依据对中国天然气供需形势的分析结果,提出了4点建议:(1)加大对国内深层、深水、非常规等类型天然气资源的勘探开发,巩固国内天然气供给的主导地位;(2)高度重视海外天然气资源利用战略布局,采取多种方式保障国内天然气市场的供应安全;(3)加快对天然气水合物的开发评价,扩大并夯实天然气产量峰值的资源基础;(4)加强天然气峰值产量滚动研究,不断增强在国际竞争中的软实力。

The Peaks of natural gas production are of great significance to the planning of national energy strategy, the coordinated de- velopment of natural gas industry chain and the investment decision-making for oil and gas companies. Therefore, based on natural gas geological and development characteristics, the production peaks of conventional gas （including tight gas）, CBM and shale gas in China have been systematically analyzed and forecasted using multiple methods. The following conclusions are drawn： first, the cumulative gas production in China will reach 280-330 bcm by 2035 and 330-410 bcm by 2050; second, the conventional gas production peaks will be easily predicable during the forecast period, while the peaks of CBM and shale gas production need to be further forecasted and tracked continuously; third, with the possible breakthrough of gas hydrate exploration and development being considered, gas production in Chi- na has a great potential and bright future. In order to achieve a strategic goal of energy transformation and conservation and to guarantee a safe and stable gas supply, a timely profound analysis and study will be necessary on the international political, economic and energy development situation for a global gas strategic layout. In view of this, based on the analysis of domestic natural gas supply and demand situation, the following proposals are put forward： to speed up the domestic tapping and commercial production of those deep-strata, deep-water and unconventional gas resources to consolidate the dominant position of domestic natural gas supply; to attach great importance to a strategic layout of overseas gas resources utilization and to adopt various ways to ensure the security of domestic gas market; to accelerate the evaluation of gas hydrate development in order to enlarge and consolidate the gas resource basis; and to strengthen a dynamic forecast on the peaks of gas production in order to continuouslv enhance the soft power in international competition.