基于行业信贷配置效率与风险的去杠杆策略研究——以广东为例

Research on Leverage Strategy Based on Industry Credit Efficiency and Risk——Take Guangdong As an Example

本文基于信贷配置效率和风险两个维度研究分行业去杠杆策略,通过构建Panel-VAR模型分析杠杆变动对广东39个不同行业产生的经济和金融效应差异,进而将各行业分为四种杠杆管理类型。本文认为,企业杠杆受主导生产要素、行业集中度、资本性质、行业金融属性等因素影响而存在异质性,"一刀切"式杠杆调控难以实现信贷配置效率和风险平衡。建议提高杠杆性质辨识的精准度,通过分行业差异化杠杆管理提高去杠杆的针对性,稳步推进金融供给侧改革。

Based on the two dimensions of credit efficiency and risk, this paper studies the leverage strategy of sub- industry. By constructing Panel-VAR model, this paper analyzes the difference of economic and financial effects caused by the change of leverage in 39 different industries in Guangdong, and then divides them into four types of leveraged management method. This paper argues that corporate leverage is dominated by factors such as leading factors of production, industry concen- tration, capital nature, industry financial attributes and other factors, ＂one size fits all＂ leveraged control is difficult to achieve credit efficiency and risk balance. It is proposed to improve the accuracy of leveraged nature identification, improve the leverage of the leveraged management by differentiated leveraged management, and steadily push forward the reform of financial supply.