房地产投资对经济增长的空间效应分析

The Spatial Effect on Economic Growth from Real Estate Investment

基于中国30个省份的样本数据建立空间杜宾模型,从地理区位和经济发展空间分布双重视角分别构建空间权重矩阵,实证分析区域房地产投资拉动经济增长的空间区位效应。研究表明:(1)区域的房地产投资活动对本地区经济增长具有正向驱动作用,与其他投入要素相比,房地产投资具有更强的跨区域空间相关性;(2)受地理区位因素和社会经济特征的双重影响,房地产投资的空间溢出效应具有结构性差异,在经济发展较为均衡的地区间,其发挥显著的正向溢出效应,而对地理上邻近但经济发展水平相差悬殊地区的经济增长具有显著的挤占效应。因此,在未来房地产市场调控政策的制定中应更多地依赖于经济邻近的区域归类方式而非地理上邻近的区域归类方式;缩小地区间经济发展差距是形成房地产市场健康稳定发展长效机制、增强经济内生增长动力的根本。

From the perspective of geographical location and paper builds the Space Durbin Model with the spatial data of spatial distribution of economic development, this 30 provinces and cities of China to analyze the spatial effect on economic growth from regional real estate investment. The results show that： Firstly, the regional real estate investment activities have positive effect on the economic growth, and have stronger cross-regional spatial correlation compared with other input factors. Secondly, there is structural heterogeneity in the spatial spillover effect of real estate investment influenced by the geographical distribution and the level of economic development. Real estate investment plays a significant positive spillover effect in the region where economic development is more balanced, and has significant crowding-up effect on the economic growth in the region which is geographically approaching but is disparate in economic development. Therefore, the spatial effect and structural heterogeneity of real estate investment should be fully considered in the formulation process of the control policy on real estate market, and implement different policies in the region clarified by the level of economic development rather than geographically approaching level. It is the long-term mechanism to Narrow the economic development gap between regions in terms of establishing a healthy and stable development of the real estate market and it is essential to strengthen the driving force for economic growth.