中日经济波动的相关性及其传导机制研究

Study on the Correlation between Chinese and Japanese Economic Fluctuation and Its Transmission Mechanism

中日两国一衣带水,地缘因素决定了两国经济会更快地彼此影响,甚至会对亚洲乃至全球的经济产生深远影响。在中国经济进入新常态时期,研究日本经济波动对中国经济的影响及其传导机制,对中国经济的稳定发展尤为重要。为此,在考虑中日政治关系的基础上,以双边贸易和投资为纽带,在暗含汇率变化的基础上,运用向量自回归模型的脉冲响应和方差分解分析中日经济短期的相互影响与长期传导机制。结果显示,中国经济受自身影响最大,日本经济受对华直接投资影响最大;日本受中国经济的影响小于中国受日本经济的影响程度;中国经济受日本经济波动影响的主要传导机制是从日本进口。

China and Japan are neighbours separated only by a strip of water. They have close economic ties, and its geopolitical factors will determine the economy of the two countries which will quickly affect each other, and even have a far-reaching impact on Asia and the world economy. When China enters the new normal, it is very important to study the influence of the Japanese economic fluctuation on Chinat s economy and the trans- mission mechanism. Considering the Sino Japanese political relations, with bilateral trade and investment as ties, based on exchange rate changes, we use impulse response and variance decomposition of VAR model to analyze the short term effects and long-term mechanism of economic interaction. Results show that China＇s economy is most affected by its own, while Japan＇s economy is most affected by direct investment in China. The influence of China on Japan＇s economy is less than the impact of Japan on China＇s economy, and the main transmission mechanism of China＇s economy affected by Japanese economic fluctuations is import from Japan.