背水西进:两栖大国破茧——始于乌克兰危机的欧亚大博弈

Move Westward:Rise of An Amphibious Power——Grand game over Eurasia originated in Ukraine crisis

国际体系经历周期性的霸权更迭,也经历大周期的架构变迁。现今国际体系脱胎于欧洲均势,以陆海两极权力分立与对抗为主轴,因而在这一体系下崛起的所有大国均是残缺的,只具备或海或陆的单极权力。冷战是欧洲均势的终极形式,中国作为两栖大国崛起,超越了两极对峙的世界体系的权力结构。乌克兰危机促使中国的欧亚角色复活,凸显了两栖大国的枢轴地位,"中央体系"应运而生。

Change of hegemont power happens in the international system cyclically; the system itself also undergoes cyclical change. The current international system originated in European balance of power, characterized by the dichotomy and confrontation of land and sea power. All the powers rising in the system are crippled in this sense, unable to acquire complete global influence. The Cold War is the ultimate form of the European scenario of the land-sea power dichotomy and confrontation. The end of Cold War and US decline are the end of a historical period deeply rooted in European geography. China is well-situated in a combined sea and land piv- ot, and goes well beyond the geographic limitation of powers coming from European history. China＇s Eurasian role is revived in Ukraine crisis, and its pivotal position is brought out; a central system comes into being accordingly.